Top Traders Unplugged with Niels Kaastrup-Larsen | l404g

This week, Mark Rzepczynski s us to discuss the Bitcoin ETF and the increasing likeliness that it won’t be banned by the US government, the need for money managers to convey good stories in order to simplify their processes to clients, why having a long track record of success, with one or two scars, is better than a perfect recent history, how Trend Following has been so successful over 6 decades, and how a non-secretive strategy like Trend Following compares to private equity strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The future of Bitcoin How money managers can explain their approaches simply to clients Long, successful, but bumpy track records versus recent strong performers Trend Following's incredible success over 6 decades The private equity world compared with systematic investing Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Mark on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:54 – A big thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:49 – Macro recap from Niels 04:52 – Weekly review of performance 12:33 – Why storylines and narratives matter 52:42 – How effectively communicating what we do can be a challenge in any industry 55:54 – The strategies that tend that lend themselves easier to good narratives 01:06:55 – Some thoughts on the likelihood of stagflation 01:13:01 – Benchmark performance update 01:14:28 – Announcement of new and updated version of the Top Traders Unplugged website which is on the way, as well as a new series on the topic of volatility, hosted by recent guest, Jason Buck

We’re ed today by Moritz Seibert to answer some of the hardest questions in the Turtle Trader entrance exam, as well as discuss the new Bitcoin futures ETF, the drive towards ESG investments and how this affects global supply chains, the years’ top performers so far in our Trend Following systems, whether we can predict if a winning streak is about to end, why Bitcoin is often compared to gold, and whether crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term strategies. In this episode, we discuss: The hardest questions in the Turtle Trading entrance exam The SECs' approval of the first-ever Bitcoin futures ETF How the move toward sustainable investments is affecting current supply chains Our best performing assets of the year so far How Bitcoin compares to Gold and if this is a fair comparison Which timeframe of Trend Following is best suited for crypto Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:25 - A huge thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts 02:59 - Macro recap from Niels 05:51 - Weekly review of returns 11:00 - Niels: What’s been the year-to-date standout winner for you? 12:40 - Niels: How much of your performance has come from crypto, compared to other non—classical Trend Following assets? 24:45 - Niels: It takes money to money, true or false? 29:45 - Niels: After a big profit, the next trend following trade is more likely to be a loss, true or false? 33:21 - Niels: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities, true or false? 34:32 - Niels: Volume and open interest are as important as price action, true or false? 36:16 - Niels: A trader should be willing to let profits turn into losses, true or false? 37:14 - Niels: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate a trade, true or false? 38:48 - Niels: It’s better to be an expert in one market, rather than try to trade ten or more markets, true or false? 40:10 - Niels: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life, true or false? 40:56 - Niels: A gap-up is a good place to initiate, if an uptrend has started, true or false? 42:07 - Niels: All speculators die broke, true or false? 43:05 - Thoughts on the new Pro Shares Bitcoin ETF launching soon 45:58 - Niels: How did your model react to the recent crypto fall in prices, and do you think crypto assets are more suited to shorter-term trend following strategies? 45:58 - Niels: How do you think the average crypto expert views the global macro landscape? 55:58 - The drive towards ESG investing and its knock-on effects to current supply chains 01:15:12 - Benchmark performance update

Jerry Parker s us for a very special episode today, where we invite him to answer the original interview questions from Richard Dennis’s famous Turtle Trader program. This is a fascinating insight into the world of Trend Following, and one which allows us to see whether Jerry has changed his opinions since working Richard Dennis, as well as explain some of his reasons for the answers chosen today. We’ve posted the questions in the timestamps below, so feel free to take the test and compare your answers to Jerry’s. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. In this episode, we discuss: Favouring long or short positions How you can go broke taking small profits Reasons to ‘fade the fundamentals’ The importance of down-time and vacations Whether we can rely on opinion of the crowd System diversification Why you should trade small The questions that Jerry would add to the Turtle Trader test today Not avoiding trades due to gaps in price Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:19 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving your 5-star reviews in iTunes, and please share this podcast with a like-minded friend: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:19 - KidsHeart charity welcomes your donations. For further information, us via: [email protected]  08:17 - Weekly review of returns 13:08 - Question 1: One should favour long or short positions. Is that true or false? 14:56 - Question 2: One should know precisely when to liquidate if a profit occurs. True or false? 14:56 - Question 3: One should trade the same number of contracts in all markets. True or false? 16:08 - Question 4: If one has £100,000 to trade, one ought to risk £25,000 on every trade. True or false? 16:26 - Question 5: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false? 16:34 - Question 6: On initiation, one should know precisely where to liquidate if a loss occurs. True or false? 17:02 - Question 7: It helps to have the fundamentals in your favour before you initiate. True or false? 17:26 - Question 8: A gap up is a good place to initiate if an uptrend has started. True or false? 17:52 - Question 9: If you anticipate buy stops in the market, wait until they are finished, and buy a little higher than that. True or false? 19:29 - Question 10: Out of our 3 types of orders, market orders, stop orders, and resting, market orders cause the least skid. True or false? 20:34 - Question 11: The more bullish news you hear, and the more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue after a substantial uptrend. True or false? 21:02 - Question 12: The majority of traders are always wrong. True or false? 21:29 - Question 13: Trading bigger is an overall handicap on one’s trading performance. True or false? 21:57 - Question 14: Larger traders can muscle markets to their advantage. True or false? 22:15 - Question 15: Vacations are important for traders to keep the proper perspective. True or false? 23:16 - Question 16: Under-trading is almost never a problem. True or false? 23:47 - Question 17: Ideally, average profits should be about 3 or 4 times average losers . True or false? 24:07 - Question 18: Traders should be willing to let winners turn into losses . True or false? 24:45 - Question 19: A very high percentage of trades should be profits. True or false? 25:02 - Question 20: A trader should like to take losses. True or false? 25:53 - Question 21: It is especially relevant when the market is higher than it’s been in 4 and 13 weeks. True or false? 26:19 - Question 22: Needing and wanting money are good motivators for good trading. True or false? 26:36 - Question 23: Ones natural inclinations are good guides to decision making in trading. True or false? 28:01 - Question 24: Luck is an ingredient for successful trading in the long run. True or false? 28:46 - Question 25: When you’re wrong, limit up is a good place to take a profit. True or false? 29:16 - Question 26: It takes money to make money. True or false? 30:21 - Question 27: It’s good to follow hunches in trading. True or false? 30:32 - Question 28: There are players in each market one should not trade against. True or false? 30:49 - Question 29: All speculators die broke. True or false? 31:51 - Question 30: The market can be understood better through social psychology rather than economics. True or false? 32:36 - Question 31: Taking a loss should be a difficult decision for traders. True or false? 32:55 - Question 32: After a big profit the next Trend Following trade is likely to be a loss. True or false? 33:32 - Question 33: Trends are not likely to persist. True or false? 34:55 - Question 34: Almost all information about a commodity is at least a little useful in helping to make decisions. True or false? 35:39 - Question 35: It’s better to be an expert in one market rather than try to trade 10 or more markets. True or false? 36:20 - Question 36: In a winning streak, total risk should rise dramatically. True or false? 36:57 - Question 37: Trading stocks is similar to trading commodities. True or false? 38:04 - Question 38: It’s important to know how much you are ahead or behind during a trading session. True or false? 38:33 - Question 39: A losing month is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false? 38:47 - Question 40: A losing week is an indication of doing something wrong. True or false? 38:55 - Question 41: The big money in trading is made when one can get long at the lows after a big downtrend. True or false? 39:10 - Question 42: It’s good to average down when buying. True or false? 39:28 - Question 43: After a long trend, the market requires more consolidation before a new trend starts. True or false? 40:43 - Question 44: It’s important to know what to do if trading commodities doesn’t succeed. True or false? 41:44 - Question 45: It’s not helpful to watch every quote in the market one trades. True or false? 42:32 - Question 46: It’s a good idea to put on or take a position all at once. True or false? 42:49 - Question 47: Diversification in commodities is always better than being in one or two markets. True or false? 43:07 - Question 48: If today’s profit or loss makes a significant difference to your net worth you’re over-trading. True or false? 43:40 - Question 49: A trader learns more from his losses than from his profits. True or false? 44:32 - Question 50: Except for commission and brokerage fees, execution costs for entering orders are minimal over the course of a year. True or false? 45:03 - Question 51: It’s easier to trade well than to trade poorly. True or false? 45:25 - Question 52: It’s important to know what success in trading will do for you later in life. True or false? 46:10 - Question 53: Uptrends end when everyone gets bearish. True or false? 46:25 - Question 54: The more bullish news you hear, the less likely a market is break out to the upside. True or false? 47:11 - Question 55: For an off-floor trader, a long-term trade ought to last 3 or 4 weeks or less. True or false? 47:40 - Question 56: Others opinions of the markets are good to follow. True or false? 47:49 - Question 57: Volume and open interest are as important as price action. True or false? 48:39 - Question 58: Daily strength and weakness is a good guide for liquidating long term positions with big profits. True or false? 49:28 - Question 59: Off-floor traders should spread different markets of different market groups. True or false? 49:48 - Question 60: The more people going long, the less likely an uptrend is to continue in the beginning of a trend. True or false? 50:11 - Question 61: Off-floor traders should not spread the same delivery month across different commodities. True or false? 50:20 - Question 62: Buying dips and selling rallies is a good strategy. True or false? 51:24 - Question 63: It’s important to take a profit most of the time. True or false? 52:04 - Niels: What one or two questions would you add to this test today? 55:53 - Jerry’s score results 55:57 - Benchmark performance update

Rob Carver returns to the show today to discuss the varying performances among CTAs during the notable market moves of the last few weeks, how to decide whether one system is better or worse than another, spread betting as part of a diversified portfolio, raising initial capital when starting a new firm, some thoughts on the US debt ceiling & its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin, and how to safely improve your system while still adhering to its rules. In this episode, we discuss: Why returns dispersion among CTAs is higher than ever recently How to gauge a system's long-term effectiveness Spread betting in the UK as an alternative to futures How to raise AUM when starting a new firm The US debt ceiling and its proposed '1 trillion dollar' coin Adding parameters to a system Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Rob on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:11 - Feel free to share this podcast with like-minded friends using this link: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen and a big thank you to those who have left a rating or review on iTunes 03:03 - Macro recap from Niels 05:43 - Weekly review of returns 12:49 - How different types of CTAs have performed during the market moves of the last few weeks 21:14 - How to decide whether a system is better or worse than another system 26:11 - Q1; Matt: Has Rob ever considered using SpreadBetting to build a diversified portfolio instead of futures? 34:24 - Q2; Joel: How much investor money would you need if you were to start a firm today, and where would you find these investors? 38:23 - Thoughts on the US debt ceiling and the ‘platinum coin’ (check out this funny video by YouTube creator Remy) 46:58 - Rob’s new system adjustment which places constraints on positions based on leverage 55:56 - Some information on Rob Carver’s new book which is due to be released late 2022 59:36 - Benchmark performance update

Richard Brennan s us today to discuss the stabilising effect that a healthy allocation to Trend Following can have on a portfolio, how to achieve compounded wealth in the long-term with systematic investing, how Trend Following strategies can thrive in both crisis periods as well as good times, some thoughts on data distribution and ‘skewness’, how to effectively communicate the benefits of Trend Following to investors, and the art of ‘embracing uncertainty’ in order to maximise returns. In this episode, we discuss: How adding Trend Following to a portfolio can smoothen positive returns Compounding wealth as a systematic investor How Trend Following can profit during good times and bad times Data distribution, 'skewness', 'convexity', 'kurtosis' and which ones to focus on How investment can often create communication barriers Embracing the uncertain nature of markets in order to maximise profits Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Richard on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share this link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 02:25 – Macro recap from Niels 04:10 – Weekly review of performance 11:35 – Knowing what to look for in a talented investment manager 19:58 – Discussion on the topic of ‘skew’ 42:44 – How the term ‘skew’ relates to other such as ‘convexity’ & ‘kurtosis’ and which are the most important for investors to focus on 56:33 – Some thoughts on what is referred to as ‘path dependency’ 1:01:03 – How Trend Following can positively influence an investment portfolio 01:02:57 – Benchmark performance update

Mark Rzepczynski s us today to discuss why people are as important as processes when investors are choosing funds, the factors that can predict future performance of a fund manager, how Trend Following often performs best when markets are highly correlated, some thoughts on portfolio construction and the various ways to measure risk, the importance of having a strong narrative when communicating what you do to allocators, the infamous ‘bandwagon effect’ among investors, how current AUM can often affect an investors decision to choose a fund, how capital allocators can improve their due diligence with Trend Following funds, and why investors like firms made up of a strong team rather than a strong single player. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. In this episode, we discuss: How people appeal more to investors than trading systems alone How to spot future star performers in advance Unconventional approaches to market correlations The importance of communication and presentation skills when communicating to clients Why investors tend to copy their peers Whether fund size matters to capital allocators How strong teams are usually more sought after by institutional investors than single players Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Mark on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 03:08 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes, and feel free to share our link with 3 of your like-minded friends: https://top-traders-unplugged.captivate.fm/listen 04:28 – Macro recap from Niels 06:15 – Weekly review of performance 11:21 – Q1, Q2 & Q3; Brett: Do you group your futures contracts into ‘risk buckets’ (sectors/groups), and give a max exposure to each ‘risk bucket’? Do you apply ‘risk-to-stop’ measures on particular types of asset class or only on the whole portfolio? How do you avoid overweighting your system toward currencies, considering the fact there are so many currency pairs to trade? 27:25 – Discussion on the key drivers for manager selection, inspired by a paper co-authored with Mark, which will be released soon 57:02 – How important consultations are in the capital allocation process 01:26:59 – Benchmark performance update

Today we are ed by Jerry Parker to discuss how shorter-term systems can be more susceptible to market noise, the importance of sticking with your system during different market environments, how major investment firms have consistently performed well by keeping Trend Following in their portfolios, some insights into Jerry’s approach to backtesting, the drawbacks of being labelled as a CTA, Jerry’s bold prediction that Trend Following firms will be the most popular type of investment fund in the future, how trading smaller during bad periods can set you up for success during favourable conditions, ensuring protection against cyber attacks, and why past correlations can’t always be relied upon. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. In this episode, we discuss: The case for longer-term strategies Not over-optimising strategies to adapt to every market condition How adding Trend Following to a portfolio increases its robustness Why Trend Following firms will be the number one choice among investors in the future How to prevent cyber attacks Why you can't always rely on past correlations to continue Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:32 - A big thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 02:26 - Macro recap from Niels 04:43 - Weekly review of returns 15:55 - An insight into Jerry Parker’s approach to backtesting 23:06 - Jerry Parker’s thoughts on the challenges of starting a CTA business today and how to overcome them 32:35 - Thoughts on effective succession planning for CTAs, as well as some thoughts on staying safe from cyber attacks 37:41 - Q1; Sebastien: How do you approach currency hedging? 41:17 - How one simple rule can be more powerful than a group of complex rules 44:48 - How shorter-term systems can be susceptible to noise 47:54 - Why past correlations can’t always be relied upon 49:32 - Discussion on a recent TransTrend article on how to respond to extreme volatility in the markets, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic 56:34 - Jerry’s thoughts on system diversification 01:01:59 - Benchmark performance update

Moritz Seibert s us today to discuss the benefits of ‘system diversification’, the case for buying at all-time highs, how classical Trend Following is performing this year, the optimal amount of sample size for an effective backtest, the best ways to monitor risk levels, some tips for starting a new Trend Following business, some recommended backtesting software for retail traders, and how to navigate around your broker’s negative interest rates. In this episode, we discuss: Why diversifying among systems can be beneficial Why buying at all-time highs can be difficult, but very profitable Classical Trend Following's recent performance versus newer methods Some good measures for monitoring risk Some tips for starting a new business based around Trend Following investing Suitable backtesting software for retail investors How to approach negative interest rates with your broker Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:05 - A big thank you to our listeners who gave us a 5-star review on iTunes & Apple Podcasts 03:21 - Macro recap from Niels 05:38 - Weekly review of returns 18:36 - What Moritz looks for when analysing his backtests 26:42 - Q1 & Q2: Derek: What are the most important risk metrics you monitor? If you had to start your Trend Following business from scratch, what would you do differently and what would you keep the same? 41:32 - Q3; Joe: Should I prioritise stocks that are working their way out of a correction over stocks making new all time highs? 45:16 - Q4; James: Can you recommend a software with backtesting capabilities, suitable for retail investors?  47:10 - Q5; Sebastien: How do you deal with negative interest rates from your broker? 51:14 - Q6; Mikhail: Is it worth varying the lengths of time being backtested rather than just, for example, backtesting data over the last 50 years? 57:39 - Thoughts on ’s election and its possible effects on the markets 01:02:08 - Benchmark performance update

This week, Richard Brennan s us to discuss whether there are any similarities between Trend Following and other investment approaches, the benefits of ‘forward-testing’ a system, the art of ‘hunting outliers’, what the optimum level of leverage could be, how much total portfolio ‘risk-to-stop’ to aim for, some thoughts on margin requirements, and which other strategy complements Trend Following the best. We also took a deep dive into backtesting, touching on topics such as: how much we can safely derive from a backtest, why a backtest with a smooth equity curve should raise alarm bells, a good checklist to use when creating a backtest, and whether some level of curve-fitting may actually be required for a good backtest. In this episode, we discuss: Which strategies would complement portfolio with 80% already allocated to Trend Following Why 'forward-testing' a system can be quite important before going live The art of finding and latching onto outlier performers Leverage, margin, & total portfolio risk-to-stop What information to look for in a backtest How to avoid 'curve-fitting' (and could some curve-fitting be beneficial?) Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Rich on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 03:25 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 03:47 – Macro recap from Niels 05:57 – Weekly review of performance 10:59 – Trend Followers as hunters of outliers 13:34  – Q1; Louis: Do you recommend starting a new model with lower leverage, so that it has time to adjust to the markets? 20:02  – Q2; Aaron: If you had to choose a different strategy to complement your main Trend Following strategy, which one would you choose, and why? 25:03  – Q3; Graham: How much margin do you use on different instruments? What total portfolio risk-to-stop do you recommend? 35:23 – ‘The good, the bad, and the ugly’ of backtesting 52:50 – How to make a backtest as objective and robust as possible 01:25:49 – Benchmark performance update

Richard Brennan s us today to discuss the current global risk factors that could cause a large liquidity event, what the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s perspective, the role of currencies in a Trend Following portfolio, the point at which diversification can end up diluting returns, whether different asset classes should be traded on different timeframes, some thoughts on pyramiding, and defining ‘non-linearity’ when discussing Trend Following models. In this episode, we discuss: The increasing global risks that could cause large market selloffs How a Trend Following trader thinks about 'outliers' The role of currency pairs in a Trend Following system Diversification versus 'Di-worse-ification' Whether to use different timeframes for different asset classes Thoughts on 'pyramiding' in and out of positions Rich's explanation of the term 'non-linearity squared' Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Richard on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 02:09 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 02:31 – Macro recap from Niels 11:17 – Weekly review of performance 17:10  – Q1; Adam: At what point does diversification become dilution? 22:32  – Q2; Mathew: Have there ever been any years where currencies were your top performers? 32:09 – What the term ‘outlier’ really means from a Trend Follower’s point of view, as well as some thoughts on the ’non-linearity squared' and ‘pyramiding’ 01:02:36 – Benchmark performance update

Mark Rzepczynski s us on the show this week to discuss the importance of being aware of known and unknown risks, how economic data can contribute to a profitable system, the different types of liquidity, how futures markets are some of the most liquid markets in the world, the need for a rules-based approach to the markets, how fundamental trends usually cause price trends, why making market predictions based on Federal Reserve announcements can be a bad idea, how the constant debasement of purchasing power since the Bretton Woods agreement has made ive investing difficult over the years, some famous quotes that can be applied to investing, and how to integrate ESG investing with Trend Following. In this episode, we discuss: Some famous quotes which apply to investing, such as Donald Rumsfeld's quote about the types of risks to be aware of How macro data can contribute to a profitable trading system The true definitions of liquidity Futures markets as the most liquid in the world Why a rules-based approach to the markets is so important The 50th anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement Trend Following with markets that are ESG-friendly Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Mark on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 02:24 – A massive thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 02:57 – Macro recap from Niels 04:37 – Weekly review of performance 09:16 – 'The black hole of Jackson Hole' and the 50th Anniversary of the Bretton Woods agreement 18:11 – The different types of liquidity 29:50 – How to measure a market’s true liquidity 01:01:37 – Integrating ESG into Trend Following 01:05:02 – Benchmark performance update

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. In this episode, we discuss: The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures Thoughts on autocorrelation The benefits of trading a wide range of markets How over-optimisation can result in underperformance Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental Why your rules are more important than any one position How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 04:11 - Macro recap from Niels 04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum 08:34 - Weekly review of returns 10:21 - Where does the edge in Trend Following really come from? 17:13 - Market selection and utilising auto-correlation 26:40 - Q1; Mark: What are some of the things about Systematic Trading that you can only learn from experience? 34:48 - Q2; Stacius: When do you know that a strategy is robust, without doing a backtest? 38:19 - Jerry’s favourite measurement of risk-to-reward 51:21 - ‘Loose pants fit everyone’ 53:51 - Deciding whether to trade in the Chinese futures markets 55:56 - CTAs utilising ETFs  01:02:05 - The benefits of being an amazing ‘quitter’ 01:05:29 - Trend Following performance during different interest-rate periods 01:07:22 - Winton’s positive recent positive comments on Trend Following  01:08:57 - Transtrend’s recent article on volatility and how it should affect your models 01:12:59 - Benchmark performance update

Jerry Parker is on the show with us today to discuss Ethereum’s recent rise after a new ‘hard fork’, auto-correlation and its effects on Trend Following strategies, how trading extra markets can improve performance, drawdowns as a key to profiting from huge trends, how Trend Following firms who try to be too unique often end up underperforming, the power of pure Trend Following versus over-optimisation, why ESG investing should also take into human rights issues, why you should love your trading rules but not your positions, and how trading in smaller sizes can lead to much bigger returns. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. In this episode, we discuss: The recent comeback in crypto markets and trading crypto futures Thoughts on autocorrelation The benefits of trading a wide range of markets How over-optimisation can result in underperformance Why ESG investing should consider human rights issues as well as environmental Why your rules are more important than any one position How decreasing position size can increase a system's profits Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 04:11 - Macro recap from Niels 04:44 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 05:25 - Discussion on Ethereum 08:34 - Weekly review of returns 10:21 - Where does the edge in Trend Following really come from? 17:13 - Market selection and utilising auto-correlation 26:40 - Q1; Mark: What are some of the things about Systematic Trading that you can only learn from experience? 34:48 - Q2; Stacius: When do you know that a strategy is robust, without doing a backtest? 38:19 - Jerry’s favourite measurement of risk-to-reward 51:21 - ‘Loose pants fit everyone’ 53:51 - Deciding whether to trade in the Chinese futures markets 55:56 - CTAs utilising ETFs  01:02:05 - The benefits of being an amazing ‘quitter’ 01:05:29 - Trend Following performance during different interest-rate periods 01:07:22 - Winton’s positive recent positive comments on Trend Following  01:08:57 - Transtrend’s recent article on volatility and how it should affect your models 01:12:59 - Benchmark performance update

Today we’re ed by Moritz Seibert to discuss the efficacy of backtests, how to build a profitable spread trading model, Moritz’s addition of Ethereum futures to his portfolio, why commodities such as coal should still be traded, how to incorporate macro data into a systematic strategy, how to distinguish between long-term profitability and shorter-term luck, and the alternatives to Microsoft Excel for managing market data in a Trend Following system. In this episode, we discuss: How effective Backtests can be Apply Trend Following models to synthetic markets Ethereum futures Why 'dirty fuel' markets should still be traded Combining macro data such as inflation into a Trend Following strategy Distinguishing between a lucky streak and a robust system How to manage market data for those who aren't familiar with coding Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:44 - Macro recap from Niels 04:41 - Weekly review of returns 10:09 - Discussion on Rich Brennan’s findings that a Trend Follower’s edge comes from the market data itself rather than the trading models 13:57 - Q1: Henry: Do you recommend any educational resources that will help me to build a spread trading model, and can Moritz talk about his own spread trading model? 29:06 - Q2; Daniel: Can inflation market effects be incorporated into Trend Following strategies? 36:16 - Q3; Stasius: What techniques do you use to measure whether strategy actually works and isn’t just in a lucky streak?  44:15 - Q5; Jeff: What alternatives to Microsoft Excel do you recommend, other than CSI? 49:46 - Ethereum futures and Bitcoin’s newer, smaller futures contracts 58:48 - Benchmark performance update

This week, Richard Brennan from ATS Trading Solutions makes his debut on the show, and we discuss the complexity behind successful Trend Following strategies, momentum trading versus Trend Following, the importance of average win rate, how a weak edge can still lead to strong returns, deflationary environments and their past effects on the Trend Following models, which markets, and how many, to include in a profitable trading system, and how to find the perfect exit strategy with minimum risk. In this episode, we discuss: Why there may be no such thing as a 'simple' successful Trend Following strategy How to profit across multiple timeframes How momentum investing is often confused with Trend Following methods Average win rate versus average loss rate Why inflation is usually a good thing for systematic investors Trailing stops and risk management How many markets are ideal for a profitable Trend Following system Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Richard on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:31 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 02:18 – Macro recap from Niels 04:23 – Weekly review of performance 10:24  – Q1; Kushro: Is there a way for the novice rules-based investor to reliably backtest their rules? 12:40  – Q2 & Q3; Danny: Can you give an example of how to trade multiple timeframes? How do I manage risk from unrealised profits & losses? 23:35 – Extracting an edge from markets 42:22 – Analysing win/loss rates 52:00 – Stops and position sizing 56:42 – Benchmark performance update 57:45 – Some big announcements

Mark Rzepczynski s us this week to discuss ‘algorithm aversion’ and the science of how ‘model anxiety’ shows investors to be naturally wary of rules-based systems.  We also discuss how to evaluate momentum data, how a busy week for market news can still be a quiet week for Trend Followers, the benefits of moving away from ‘peak complexity’ as soon as possible, why having too many filters can expose a trader to large opportunity costs, the optimal percentage amount of risk per trade, as well as portfolio construction versus signal generation and which is more important. You can find Mark’s latest writings here. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels & Mark on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MRzepczynski And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:49 – A huge thank you to listeners of the show for leaving your 5-star reviews on iTunes 03:02 – Macro recap from Niels 04:48 – Weekly review of performance 11:59  – Q1; James: What are your views on momentum indicators diverging against price action? 24:56  – Q2; Frank: What is your view on the relationship between the stop and the look-back period? 28:52  – Q3; John: Is the 2% rule still a popular and good risk-per-trade today? 35:56  – Q4; Mark: Would you ever not take a trade because it seems so absurd logically? 40:11  – Q5; Frederick: Do you think people are underinvested in CTAs because they want to feel in more ‘in control’ than a systematic approach would allow them to? 45:34 – The calculus of business cycles 48:51 – Narrative ambiguity versus model clarity 50:53 – How to handle depreciating cash 54:04 – The power of weather shocks 58:01 – Do we need inflation futures? 59:58 – Curve play in bonds 01:02:11 – Hayek co-ordination  problem and recovery 01:04:57 – Benchmark performance update 01:05:57 – Next week we have Richard Brennan ing us on the show, so send in your questions Subscribe on:

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels & Jerry on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @RJParkerJr09 And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 01:28 – A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 02:02 – Macro recap from Niels 12:07 – Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy? 31:37 – Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days?  What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake?  How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’? 40:01 – Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer? 47:27 – Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns 50:48 – Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance 58:11 – How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors 01:01:04 – Diversification versus concentration 01:05:07 – Benchmark performance update Subscribe on:

Jerry Parker returns today to discuss why margin perhaps isn’t as important as people perceive it to be, the resurgence of ‘classical’ Trend Following, the importance of having a low Sharpe ratio, an update on Jerry’s Bitcoin positioning, the drawbacks of trading a single, longer-term timeframe, how European CTAs successfully compete with American CTAs, the best methods for measuring open risk, and why capturing the fewer large trends may be more important than the many small trends. Also check out my interview with Turtle Trading legendary mentor Richard Dennis here. Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Jerry on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 01:28 - A huge thank you to our listeners for leaving 5-star reviews in iTunes 02:02 - Macro recap from Niels 12:07 - Q1; Omar: Why isn’t Trend Following more popular as a strategy? 31:37 - Q2 & Q3, Q4; John: What percentage of margin to equity was Jerry using during his Turtle Trading days? What kind of margin levels does Jerry use today at Chesapeake? How do you define and differentiate between ‘profit factors’? 40:01 - Q5; Mark: What look back periods do you tend to prefer? 47:27 - Deep and fast drawdowns versus longer-lasting, shallower drawdowns  50:48 - Adjusting your trading universe by recent performance 58:11 - How newer money managers can differentiate themselves from their competitors 01:01:04 - Diversification versus concentration 01:05:07 - Benchmark performance update

Moritz Seibert s us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. You can find some of Moritz’s work here, and over at Real Vision. If you would like to leave us a voicemail to play on the show, you can do so here. Check out our Global Macro series here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Send your questions to [email protected] Follow Niels & Moritz on Twitter: @TopTradersLive  & @MoritzSeibert And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Top Traders Unplugged wins award for ‘Best Trading Podcast’ and features among the ‘Top 20 Best Investing Podcasts in 2020’ by The Investors Podcast 🏆 Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 – Intro 02:28 – Macro recap from Niels 03:53 – Weekly review of returns 11:01 – The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber 14:32 – Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure?  What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it? 29:20 – Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods? 34:13 – Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report? 41:14 – Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use? 42:30 – Q6, Q7 & Q8; Babek: Should you trade all markets using the same approach? How do you deal with downside risks once a large profitable uptrend is established? Should position size be increased if the number of open trades is less than the maximum? 1:01:56 – Benchmark performance update Subscribe on:

Moritz Seibert s us today discuss the benefits of stripping down your trading approach as much as possible, the various ways to exit a hugely profitable trade, the different forms of research related to your investing approach, simplification vs over-complication, the acceptable amount of margin per trade, spread-betting using a Trend Following strategy, and if you should trade all markets the same way or tailor to each market accordingly. In this episode, we discuss: The benefits of simplifying your trading approach as much as possible Optimal exits from hugely profitable trades How to engage in related to your investment approach Over complicating a trading strategy Acceptable margin amounts Spread-trading using a Trend Following strategy Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website. Follow Moritz on Twitter. IT’s TRUE 👀 – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here. And you can get a free copy of my latest book “The Many Flavors of Trend Following” here. Learn more about the Trend Barometer here. Send your questions to [email protected] And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest rating & review on iTunes so more people can discover the podcast. Episode TimeStamps: 00:00 - Intro 02:28 - Macro recap from Niels 03:53 - Weekly review of returns 11:01 - The commodities reflation trade and Moritz’s trade in Lumber 14:32 - Q1 & Q2; Andreas: How do you justify your fee structure?  What long-term returns should we expect from a short-term CTA? At what point does enhancing a strategy become over-complicating it? 29:20 - Q3; Mark: What are some of the best look back periods? 34:13 - Q4; Frank: Do CTAs place any importance on the Commitment of Traders report? 41:14 - Q5; John: What is a normal amount of margin that CTAs use? 42:30 - Q6, Q7 & Q8; Babek: Should you trade all markets using the same approach? How do you deal with downside risks once a large profitable uptrend is established? Should position size be increased if the number of open trades is less than the maximum? 01:01:56 - Benchmark performance update