Money Tree Investing Podcast | Stock Market | Weal r2625

Kurt Carlton discusses the inefficiencies of the MLS for a good real estate investment strategy. It's currently hard to find good deals, an MLS doesn't show the scale of vacant housing in the U.S., and some sellers often prefer off-market options that avoid inspections and repairs. We also talk broader market dynamics as today’s challenges stem not from distressed sellers, as in 2008, but from an aging housing stock and a severe shortage of new construction. Local real estate investors are best positioned to help restore inventory by rehabilitating vacant homes, offering a scalable solution to a long-term housing crisis.  We discuss... Kurt Carlson has nearly 20 years of experience in real estate, specializing in distressed and value-add residential properties. Unlike the MLS, Kurt's real estate platform targets off-market and undervalued properties not suited for traditional homebuyers. The MLS is inefficient for distressed properties, as typical buyers are discouraged by repairs and inspections. Investors view property issues as opportunities to create value through design, rehab, and operational efficiency. Many realtors prefer listing distressed homes on Kurt’s marketplace rather than handling inspections and contractor coordination. Local investors can rehab properties more efficiently and cost-effectively than distant or uninformed sellers. There are roughly 15 million vacant homes in the U.S., presenting massive hidden inventory potential. Despite high housing demand, new construction is at historic lows—fewer homes are being built now than in 1992. Builders face high regulatory costs, land expenses, tariffs, labor shortages, and unpredictable demand cycles. Government programs often inflate demand rather than addressing supply constraints in affordable housing. Local real estate investors are critical to solving the housing crisis by repurposing vacant homes into livable inventory. Supply-demand imbalance persists because builders can’t profitably create affordable housing in high-demand areas. There is plenty of capital in the market, but the housing market is not clearing due to mismatches in pricing and affordability. Out of all homes sold in the U.S., one in five is purchased by a real estate investor, the majority of whom buy fewer than 10 homes per year. The perception that Wall Street is dominating the housing market is misleading; most activity is by small business operators. There is strong demand for single-family rentals (SFR), especially for families who don’t want to live in apartments. Revitalizing a few homes in neglected neighborhoods can start a chain reaction that attracts more investment and increases values. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/real-estate-investment-strategy-kurt-carlton-716 

AI is getting smarter, but are we ready? Today we deep dive into the evolution of tools like ChatGPT—from early, academic-sounding outputs to more recent capabilities that include humor, sarcasm, and nuanced storytelling. We explore how AI is rapidly improving but still faces a gap in practical, transformative use cases for the average person. The adoption curve is slow, but so it has been for past innovations like video games, the internet, and crypto. While AI is becoming more accessible, it hasn’t yet reached full mainstream integration, but it eventually will. We discuss... The explosion of AI interest since ChatGPT’s launch and its shift from novelty to everyday tool. How AI is getting better at sarcasm, creativity, and sounding more human unlike early AI with bland writing and a poor grasp of humor and nuance. The challenge of finding truly impactful AI use cases beyond convenience tools. The tech adoption spectrum, from everyday s to coders, and how AI fits into that. How AI follows a familiar tech adoption curve—past early adopters, not yet fully mainstream. Comparisons between AI today and early stages of gaming, internet, or crypto adoption. The idea that we’re still just scratching the surface of what AI can do in daily life. ChatGPT commands the most attention, Claude comes in a distant second, and Gemini is barely on the radar. Google is quietly testing a lead generation product (likely Local Services Ads) as a new revenue source. AI hasn’t yet reached the point of autonomously solving problems without guidance. AI tools can produce mediocre output by default but become shockingly good with proper input and structure. AI isn’t replacing jobs yet, but people who know how to use AI are replacing those who don’t. There are viral examples of teens using AI to launch apps with multi-million dollar revenues. The more specific the prompt, the better the AI’s output—clarity is key. Business tasks like running scenarios, correlations, and planning can be done instantly with AI. There’s huge potential for public-facing AI avatars to field press, lead webinars, or handle customer interactions. s respond well to AI when it's honest about being non-human—transparency builds trust.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/ai-is-getting-smarter-715 

Your bad estate plan is going to cost you! In today's episode, Lauren Klein, a Florida-based tax and estate planning attorney, discussed the critical components of effective estate planning. She debunks myths about revocable trusts, touches on the importance of regularly updating estate plans, and shares on the unethical financial incentives some attorneys may have to let plans fall short. We also talk the strategic use of irrevocable trusts, asset titling, and state-specific protections like Florida’s homestead laws for enhanced asset security. We discuss... Lauren Klein is a Florida-based tax, trust, and estate attorney who works nationally, helping clients with estate planning, probate avoidance, and tax strategies. Probate happens when someone dies owning assets solely in their name without a beneficiary or trust.  Probate adds stress during grief and often sparks disputes—especially if there’s no clear plan or distant relatives get involved. Family fights usually come from unresolved issues, emotional baggage, or greed. Clear planning helps prevent conflict, though it can’t always stop it. Many assume a will or trust avoids probate, but trusts must be properly funded—assets need to be retitled into the trust or have it listed as beneficiary.  The estate planning industry is too transactional—clients get documents but little follow-up. After a death, families often struggle to locate and transfer assets legally while grieving. It requires attorneys, paperwork, and patience. A common myth is that revocable trusts protect assets from taxes or lawsuits. They don’t during your lifetime—but they help avoid probate and add control. Revocable trusts shine when ing assets to kids. They can protect inheritances from divorce or lawsuits and become irrevocable (and stronger) after death. Trusts are especially helpful for blended families and young kids. You can distribute assets in stages and add estate tax protection with proper planning. Irrevocable trusts offer stronger protections but are more complex and better suited for high net worth or special planning needs. Asset protection varies by state—Florida, for example, offers homestead and tenancy protections. Even how you title a car can matter. Retirement s and life insurance have some protection, but it depends on the state. Listing all assets is key to building a strong estate plan. Crypto is showing up more in estate planning. It requires special steps to protect and transfer securely. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/bad-estate-planning-lauren-klein-714 

China tariffs are causing big problems right now. Today we talk about the recent developments in U.S.-China trade relations, particularly the temporary pause in tariffs and the broader implications for investor sentiment and economic narratives. The fear over supply chain disruptions quickly faded once tariff discussions resumed—even though actual inventory issues remained unresolved. We also analyzed a new Republican tax bill, highlighting key proposals like eliminating taxes on tips and overtime, allowing deductions for car loan interest, and introducing a “MEGA ” to education, home buying, and small business loans. We discuss...  Trump temporarily paused tariffs on China for 90 days, reducing tensions and prompting speculation on political motives. Despite ongoing inventory lags, public and media attention has waned following the tariff pause announcement. People often react to headlines and political gestures without examining the actual impact or facts on the ground. Wall Street quickly shifted from fear to optimism despite unresolved issues, illustrating emotional market swings. Consumer sentiment has rapidly reversed from bearish to bullish, reflecting how quickly perception can change. Buffett’s principle of being fearful when others are greedy remains relevant in today’s sentiment-driven market. The proposed GOP tax bill includes a “No Tax on Tips” provision, widely ed as fair for service workers. A new “MEGA ” is proposed to help with education, small business loans, and first-time homebuyer costs. The IRS uses audits not primarily to collect money but to scare people into compliance, as stated by an IRS official. Low-income taxpayers are disproportionately audited due to earned income tax credit claims. Wealthy individuals can afford legal , making IRS audits less impactful for them compared to lower earners. The U.S. housing market is now at its most unaffordable level in recorded history. Mortgage rates are back to their historical average and unlikely to drop meaningfully. The Fed's long-term involvement in mortgage-backed securities has distorted the housing market. Interest rates remain high, and the Fed has yet to significantly cut, raising questions about the rationale for past rate cuts. For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/china-tariffs-are-causing-big-problems-713 

Ashley Morgan is here to share on filing for bankruptcy the right way. There has been a rising demand for bankruptcy services amid job losses and contracting challenges in the D.C. area, particularly among government contractors, and Ashley's VA based Law Practice has been doing a lot of work on these cases for both individuals and businesses. Ashley explains how bankruptcy can offer a fresh start, protect certain assets like homes or retirement s, and in some cases discharge tax and SBA debt. The conversation also covers the complexity of student loan discharge, the importance of asset protection and planning before filing, and misconceptions around credit damage post-bankruptcy.  We discuss...  Ashley Morgan, a bankruptcy attorney near D.C., discussed the rising demand for her services amid increasing job losses, particularly among government contractors. The economic slowdown in the D.C. area is creating a trickle-down effect, impacting local small businesses as stable government money dries up. Bankruptcy is a legal, court-supervised process to eliminate or restructure debt, offering individuals a fresh financial start. The U.S. system allows broader bankruptcy relief compared to many other countries, though outcomes depend heavily on income, assets, and debt type. Common types of bankruptcy include Chapter 7 (liquidation), Chapter 13 (repayment plan), Chapter 11 (business restructuring), and Chapter 12 (for farmers/fishermen). Chapter 11 is often used by large businesses to renegotiate leases, restructure payments, or close unprofitable locations. Small business owners can file Chapter 7 to shut down a business, but Chapter 11 can be cost-prohibitive for many. Personal credit isn't always impacted by business bankruptcy unless the owner personally guaranteed business debt. Bankruptcy doesn’t automatically ruin credit—many filers see credit scores rebound shortly after filing. Asset protection during bankruptcy varies by state; homestead exemptions can protect homes, but limits differ widely. Timing and transparency are critical—transferring assets before filing may trigger fraudulent conveyance issues. Retirement s (e.g., 401(k)s, IRAs) are often protected and can be used strategically before filing. Student loans are generally not dischargeable, though rare exceptions exist through adversary proceedings under "undue hardship." SBA and certain tax debts may be dischargeable under specific conditions, like being sufficiently old and properly filed. Ashley emphasizes the importance of early education, legal consultation, and realistic expectations about outcomes when considering bankruptcy. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/filing-for-bankruptcy-ashley-morgan-712 

This hidden bull market is actually lying in plain sight! Find out what it is today as we discuss media fear-mongering, unhelpful propaganda, Bitcoin and gold, and more. The central banks continue accumulating gold, emphasizing its historical role as a long-term store of value, and noting that despite the rise of digital assets like Bitcoin (which the U.S. now holds as a reserve), gold's cultural and material significance remains deeply embedded worldwide. Oh, and we also got a new Pope! We discuss...  A new Pope from the U.S., Pope Leo XIV (formerly Robert Prevost of Chicago), was elected, contradicting Jim Cramer's confident prediction. The Pope had a 1% chance in betting markets, showing how off-market odds can be and how unexpected outcomes can deliver large returns. A widely shared headline warned that Earth will run out of oxygen, but buried in the article was the timeline—1 billion years from now. Climate change is a hard-to-measure issue that’s often politically weaponized and based on unprovable long-term models. Propaganda exists across all eras and agendas, including pro-America messages like those in 80s movies such as Top Gun. Spotting propaganda and political messaging can be useful for investors trying to understand broader narratives and their market implications. Governments often downplay crises right before they hit, and historically, such reassurances can be a red flag to start worrying. Recognizing themes in media, like global warming or military conflicts, can help investors anticipate policy moves or market shifts. Nuclear energy is an example of a rational solution ignored for political reasons, illustrating how policy can ignore practical options. Wealthy investors and central banks are buying more gold, reinforcing gold's role as a long-term store of value. Gold continues to be culturally significant and trusted across civilizations, unlike newer assets like Bitcoin. The U.S. government has decided to hold confiscated Bitcoin as a reserve asset, further legitimizing it in financial circles. There's growing speculation that Bitcoin could evolve into a reserve asset for central banks, similar to gold. Banks have transitioned from resisting Bitcoin to finding ways to monetize it, suggesting institutional acceptance is rising. Gold has significantly outpaced wage growth since 2000, reinforcing its strength as a store of value amid stagnant real income. Crypto has displaced silver as the inflation-hedge asset of choice among younger investors, hurting silver’s narrative. Long-term tailwinds for silver include green tech applications like solar s and EVs, which could reignite demand. Gold and silver miners have underperformed despite rising bullion prices, with some major miners currently unprofitable. Mining companies face structural inefficiencies, making many poor business models despite gold’s rise. Institutional caution, reflected in moves by figures like Warren Buffett, indicates potential market hesitancy despite retail optimism.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/hidden-bull-market-711 

Anthony Georgiades shares the future of venture capital in the age of AI. He shares his journey from an early failed startup to becoming a deeply technical investor focused on frontier technologies. He emphasizes the importance of technical literacy in venture capital, especially when evaluating deep tech. We also touch on the economic and existential risks of AI, emphasizing the need for governance, transparency, and decentralized control, while pointing to robotics as a slower-moving but ultimately transformative force in the physical economy. We discuss...  Anthony Georgiades shared his background in business, venture capital, and a technical pivot into computer science and robotics. A failed early startup experience drove him to gain deeper technical proficiency to better assess and build emerging technologies. He emphasized the importance of deeply understanding deep tech and being able to speak fluently with technical founders. Web3 use cases are becoming more real, with examples like decentralized AI inference, verifiable model outputs, and on-chain computation. He highlighted the importance of decentralized GPU marketplaces and AI-native blockchains as potential disruptors. Web3’s decentralized financial infrastructure enables instant, global, and permission-less access to financial instruments. Banks remain entrenched due to regulatory, compliance, and sovereign monetary systems, despite growing disruption. Crypto is unlikely to replace fiat overnight due to legal, infrastructure, and fractional reserve complexities. AI is seen as the most inevitable trend, already impacting industries across the board. The exponential development of foundation models and the importance of proprietary data are creating a winner-take-most dynamic. Web3, though earlier in development, is viewed as more disruptive due to its potential to create new markets and rewrite institutional frameworks. He acknowledged real short- and long-term risks with AI, including economic displacement, misinformation, and loss of control. Existential AI risk stems from misaligned goals, where intelligent systems could pursue objectives with harmful side effects. Open models, auditable systems, and decentralized infrastructure are key to safer AI development. Robotics is considered the “final frontier” of disruption, especially as intelligent machines become capable of operating in the physical world. Use cases like autonomous farming are emerging as impactful applications of robotics innovation. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/venture-capital-in-the-age-of-ai-anthony-georgiades-710   

The central banks are hoarding this asset while they wait for Trump's next move! In the meantime, Warren Buffett’s announced his official retirement and his handoff of leadership to Greg Abel. We talk Buffett’s post-2000 investment choices, the reasons he may have avoided buying Microsoft despite his close friendship with Bill Gates, and the challenges of managing massive capital. The hosts also touch on Buffett’s preference for capital-efficient, moat-heavy businesses and his indirect exposure to Microsoft through index holdings. We also discuss recent economic news, negative GDP print driven by rising inventories and reduced government spending. We discuss...  Warren Buffett officially announced his retirement, ing leadership to Greg Abel. Buffett’s consistent outperformance over decades, despite criticisms of his recent picks. Buffett's size as an investor was cited as a limitation, forcing him to seek only very large investments. The recent negative GDP print, noting concerns around economic slowdown. Inventory buildup ahead of Trump-era tariffs artificially skewed GDP figures. Net exports and reduced government spending are key contributors to the negative GDP number. Consumer spending was also shown to have slowed, adding to concerns about potential recession signals. A sharp drop in consumer spending could be a clear economic indicator of a downturn. Business investment surged after Trump’s election due to economic optimism but has since stalled amid uncertainty Many business owners are holding back on investment due to a lack of visibility under the current istration. Shipping delays from China can take 30 days, meaning tariff effects won't be felt immediately but are now becoming visible. A drop in container orders from China suggests supply chain disruptions are already underway. The "bullwhip effect" explains how small supply chain changes can cause large swings in inventory and pricing. Warren Buffett is still sitting on significant cash, possibly anticipating better buying opportunities amid market volatility. A coming inventory crunch could cause inflation as demand outstrips constrained supply. Post-COVID rebounds in same-store sales distort trend lines and may create false signals. The official I of 21% over five years doesn’t align with real-world price experiences, suggesting data manipulation. Government inflation numbers may be inaccurate or understated, leading to misguided investing decisions. Investors should rely on personal experience and intuition—the “bullshit detector”—instead of blindly trusting official data.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/central-banks-are-hoarding-this-asset-711

Diana Perkins shares how you can master your emotions through discipline for trading success. Her journey has taken her from a childhood fascination with finance to building a career in trading and eventually launching her own trading education business. She mentors aspiring traders and emphasizes that long-term success is overwhelmingly about emotional discipline and risk management.  We discuss...  Diana Perkins shares that she knew finance was her calling from a young age, charging her sister interest on loans at age nine. She fell in love with trading stock options and derivatives, and mentors hundreds of aspiring traders. Today, Diana runs her own trading education business focused on teaching new traders with an emphasis on risk management. Most traders, particularly currency traders, tend to blow up at least one as a "rite of age." Fear, greed, and mindset are much bigger factors in trading success than simply knowing technical skills. Diana works extensively with options traders, helping them overcome the initial intimidation of options complexity. She emphasized the importance of discipline and emotional control in trading over just understanding strategies. Her favorite strategy when trading professionally is vertical spreads because of their limited risk and “set it and forget it” nature. She shared that she still trades today, both in her own and through a virtual portfolio for her stock-picking service. Most people’s natural instincts — fear, greed, impatience — are what make trading so challenging. Even random stock picks can perform well if trade management and discipline are handled properly. Diana emphasizes that discipline, probability, and risk management are at the core of successful trading, not just stock picking. It's important to focus on the amount of at risk rather than the number of contracts or shares controlled. Verticals require holding to expiration to capture full profit potential since gains are capped. Implied volatility (IV) can often cause seemingly "off" prices, particularly around earnings and major events. Consistency over time is critical to profiting from strategies like IV trading, much like "sell in May" seasonality trades. While AI tools can assist, she double-checks everything manually due to her auditing background and mistrust of "black box" systems. Although past performance isn't predictive, understanding human psychology — fear and greed — can offer powerful trading insights. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/discipline-for-trading-success-diana-perkins-708 

This is a big move in this shiny asset! While everything else in the market is seeing big changes, gold is not different. We are also in earnings season, and major companies' reports can influence markets. Business uncertainty, especially around tariffs, has caused a dramatic slowdown in corporate spending. Forecasting has become very difficult, but there are signs of a potential recession, yet it's still important to avoid echo chambers when forming investment views.  We discuss... Inflation has significantly raised prices at restaurants between 2020 and 2025, with breakfast items like IHOP pancakes seeing an 82% price increase. Companies are cautious during the current earnings season, often dampening future expectations due to economic uncertainty and tariffs. A North American manager reported that customer spending and shipping orders have frozen up worse than during COVID, threatening layoffs. People seek confirmation of their beliefs and the danger of echo chambers in investing and life. Successful investors should seek out contradictory evidence rather than self-confirming narratives. Value stocks like McDonald’s and Coca-Cola have been resilient and largely unaffected by tariffs. Investors should examine their ETFs' holdings and individual stock performance closely. Many mega-cap tech stocks have struggled despite strong revenue growth since 2021. A new generation of investors is facing real market pullbacks for the first time, leading to potential emotional decision-making. Risk is always present in markets, regardless of "risk on" or "risk off" environments. Diversification and proper risk management should be done before volatility hits, not after. Technology stocks are especially vulnerable to liquidity tightening and reduced spending. Global liquidity is showing signs of increasing outside the U.S., helping international markets outperform. Recessions, though painful, are necessary for economic health and market resets. Gold has been very strong recently, staying above its 200-day moving average. The gold-to-silver ratio is historically high, suggesting silver is extremely undervalued relative to gold. Proper ratio trades remove general market movement risk but require strong discipline and understanding.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-this-shiny-asset-707 

We're ed by s Reaves, who shares insights from her work in estate and Medicaid planning, on how to get your parents ready for long term care. s explains the importance of preparing for elder care before it's urgently needed, sharing her personal experience with her own parents and husband, who is currently navigating Alzheimer's care. The conversation dives into the realities of elder care, including the challenges of navigating the healthcare system, the high costs of in-home versus facility care, and the value of long-term care insurance.  We discuss...  Francis Reads is an elder law attorney specializing in estate and Medicaid planning. She founded a service within her law firm called “Parent Your Parents” to elder care planning. Elder care generally begins around age 65, when Medicare becomes available. A major challenge in elder care is systemic apathy and poor communication in facilities. In-home care is the gold standard if money is no object, costing $12,000–$15,000 per month. Reverse mortgages and long-term care insurance are common strategies to fund elder care. Long-term care insurance works similarly to car insurance—ideally unused but crucial. The cost of long-term care and facilities can quickly deplete even sizable retirement savings. The best age to purchase long-term care insurance is between 55 and 60. For-profit facilities are incentivized to keep patients alive, not necessarily to improve their quality of life. If you have no one to care for you, plan ahead with long-term care insurance, savings, and legal documents like power of attorney and healthcare proxy. People who choose to provide full-time care often risk financial ruin if long-term care plans or savings are not in place. There’s potential to arbitrage life expectancy in financial tools like reverse mortgages or life insurance. Many elders struggle with losing independence, especially around giving up driving. Adult children often become parental figures to their own parents, which can create emotional strain. Financial advisors and lawyers play a key role in spotting and preventing elder financial abuse. Professionals should watch for signs of undue influence or financial exploitation and speak up if concerned. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/long-term-care-h-s-reaves-706 

Good times... Bad markets! Today we talk about recent volatility in the market, particularly in the bond market, as there is a lot of geopolitical uncertainty that are coming with Trump’s economic moves. There may be a market downturn of up to 40% and the Fed will respond most likely respond by cutting rates, a familiar cycle in which political and monetary forces intervene to stabilize markets. Ultimately, if there's a recession, we still don't need to panic, the US markets are still strong so invest accordingly! We discuss... Market volatility recently spiked to levels not seen since COVID, driven by geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty. Trump’s unpredictable moves reintroduced risk into the markets, which had become too complacent. The Fed is currently in a wait-and-see mode, which markets interpret as a lack of proactive response. Trump criticized the Fed for not following the ECB in cutting rates, claiming it weakens U.S. competitiveness. The podcast host believes the market can handle high rates and criticized Powell’s pre-election rate cut as political. A continued market selloff is expected, with potential drops of 30–40% in the S&P 500 this year. If markets decline significantly, the Fed is likely to step in and cut rates to stabilize things. Historically, market declines have been followed by Fed intervention, which then props markets back up. A mild recession is likely before any recovery, but the overall economy remains fundamentally strong. Tariffs are currently painful for businesses but are viewed as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent fixture. Markets dislike uncertainty, and the next six months are expected to be rocky before clarity returns. Keeping cash on hand is advised to take advantage of potential lower asset prices Americans are generally uncomfortable with negotiation and volatility compared to the rest of the world. Manufacturing may not fully return to the U.S., but diversification is critical for national security. Time dilation and recency bias cause people to misjudge the permanence of current events like tariffs. Leaders like Trump and Powell are motivated by legacy, not destruction. A stronger dollar could hurt gold and hard assets but elevate the U.S. as the most stable economy. Investors should routinely reassess their holdings to see if they would still buy them today. Always identify the potential exit point for any investment to manage risk.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/good-times-bad-markets-705 

Dan Rasmussen returns to talk about how to invest during this global paradigm shift. Rasmussen shares how the post-2008 investment environment has shifted, with international markets now outperforming, volatility spiking, and the dollar weakening. He critiques the AI investment narrative, challenges in AI profitability, the misalignment between AI hype and real-world economic value, and the implications of rising geopolitical and market uncertainty.  We discuss... Dan Rasmussen runs the hedge fund Verdad, focusing on microcap value, credit, and market-neutral strategies. His new book, The Humble Investor, compiles insights from a decade of writing research notes. How the post-2008 market was defined by low volatility, strong U.S. equity performance, and growth stock dominance. In 2025, international markets have started outperforming U.S. equities, signaling a potential regime shift. As AI skepticism grows, tech giants have seen declining returns due to increased capital intensity. The profitability of AI investments remains unclear, with few killer applications and unsustainable infrastructure costs. Chipmakers like Nvidia require enormous customer spending just to justify current valuations. The long-term viability of AI, citing high operational costs and uncertain end- benefits. Rising market volatility, potentially driven by politics and the dollar, is pushing investors toward safer, lower-volatility assets. Despite years of underperformance, international investing may be entering a comeback phase. Google is testing a shift from a pay-per-click to a pay-per-lead ad model in select zip codes. ChatGPT is becoming a preferred tool for research due to speed, accuracy, and reduced noise compared to Google. The uncertainty around AI profitability makes current tech valuations speculative and potentially risky. Potential large-scale layoffs in government and academia could ripple through the broader economy. Shifting public-sector workers to private-sector roles is uncertain and may not offset job losses. Despite Trump’s influence, AI is seen as a more dominant force for markets than political shifts. Japan is highlighted as a promising international market due to undervalued stocks with fortress balance sheets. Gold has become a favored allocation, with some portfolios holding as much as 35% due to recent strong performance. Today's ists: Megan Gorman | The Wealth Intersection Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-paradigm-shift-dan-rasmussen-704

There's a second big move in the S&P 500 and it's going to change things! Today we reflect on a historic and volatile week in the markets, highlighting dramatic swings that included 40- to 50-year extremes. We also talk investor psychology, client reactions, and the importance of focusing on long-term planning rather than daily market noise. There's also been a mystery investment that has quietly outperformed this year despite a lack of media attention so it's important to pay attention to all the trends, even the ones that aren't getting mainstream attention. We also share on Warren Buffett’s enduring success, Trump’s negotiation tactics, and how to spot overlooked opportunities by tracking what isn't crashing when everything else is.  We discuss... A mystery investment that's performed exceptionally well in 2024 but has received zero media attention. How under-the-radar assets often outperform when no one is paying attention. Billionaires lost large amounts of money this year—except Warren Buffett, who gained $12.7 billion. Charts from the previous week showed bond-related assets and corn among top performers, while energy and cannabis sectors lagged. Some Dow stocks barely moved during the selloff—specifically Coca-Cola and McDonald’s. We encourage investors to look for stocks that remain resilient during market downturns as potential buying opportunities. Trump’s negotiation tactics with China are giving markets a breather while keeping pressure on. Strength in gold miners, healthcare, and food & beverage was cited as areas to watch moving forward. Social media sentiment is largely negative, with most companies underperforming regardless of size. Low volatility stocks are the notable outliers, performing better than other equity factors. Alternative assets like preferreds and hedge funds are also experiencing significant declines. Gold is the surprise top-performing asset this year, up sharply and widely ignored by even gold enthusiasts. Financially strong companies are likely to outperform in uncertain markets and come out stronger. U.S. processed food is often lower quality than international versions, yet less regulated domestically. The 200-day moving average is a key rule of thumb—nothing good tends to happen below it. Global equity markets, particularly Europe and Latin America, remain positive year-to-date despite recent pullbacks. European stocks may offer opportunity, but the speaker expresses skepticism over Europe’s long-term competitiveness. The U.S. dollar is down 4% year-to-date and recently broke below its multi-year trading range. Crypto has been mixed, with Bitcoin holding up better than Ethereum but still failing to protect during downturns. Short-term U.S. Treasuries are a reasonable safe option, but cash in one’s own currency is the best defense. Investors should stay cautious and avoid big risks during uncertain times, even amid major rebounds. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/second-big-move-in-the-sp 

Beau Henderson s us to dive into the often misunderstood world of Social Security planning. Beau highlights how only 4% of people claim their benefits in a way that maximizes lifetime value. We discuss why Social Security is so confusing: its overly complex rules, lack of personalized advice from the SSA, and the financial planning industry's limited focus on optimization due to low compensation incentives. Beau also breaks down a three-step process to make better Social Security decisions. We discuss... Beau Henderson worked in retirement planning for over 25 years, focusing heavily on Social Security optimization. A mentor’s poor Social Security decision inspired Beau to dig deeper into the system and help others avoid costly mistakes. Many people take Social Security based on incomplete or misleading advice, often lacking proper context. The Social Security istration cannot legally give personalized advice, which leaves many without adequate guidance. There are over 500 possible combinations of how a household can claim Social Security benefits. Beau breaks Social Security planning into three key steps: organize your financial picture, understand the rules for your household, and model different claiming scenarios. Most households leave over $200,000 on the table due to suboptimal Social Security decisions. Social Security decisions should be integrated with income distribution planning and tax strategy. Sometimes taking benefits earlier can make sense if it s personal goals like retiring earlier. Many people don’t realize that the Social Security decision affects not just them but their spouse’s future as well. Common fear about Social Security cuts are largely media-driven; legislation changes tend to happen slowly. The worst-case scenario is likely a 20% benefit reduction, not elimination, and future generations will see more significant changes. Up to 85% of your Social Security benefit may be taxable depending on your income level. Proactive tax planning, like Roth conversions, can help reduce the tax burden on Social Security income. Survivor benefits are an important yet often overlooked aspect of Social Security planning. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-planning-beau-henderson-702 

There is a big move coming in the S&P 500. In today's episode we dive into the recent market volatility triggered by geopolitical tensions, tariffs, and investor sentiment. We talk on the challenge of predicting markets and the importance of investing discipline, especially amid fear-driven reactions. And despite a possible short-term bounce, the market may remain in a downtrend. Tariffs also play a role in all of this so it's important to note real intent behind economic policy shifts, and how media narratives often distort the bigger picture. Learning to separate political bias from financial decision-making is key.  We discuss... The title “Big Move in the S&P 500 is Coming” turned out to be timely despite being chosen a week in advance. Recent market volatility was attributed to unexpected tariffs and general investor fear. The S&P 500 remains significantly overvalued, with a current PE ratio around 34 versus a historical average of 17. A 50% drop in the market would return valuations to historically normal levels. Investor psychology suggests more panic-selling could happen early in the following week before a potential bounce. Markets typically don’t move in straight lines and operate within up-and-down momentum cycles. Conservative positioning is advised; sitting on the sidelines may be the safer play for now. The only assets showing strength recently are crypto (Bitcoin, Ethereum), the VIX, bonds, and a few niche equities like corn and select homebuilders. Investors should separate political views from market expectations—markets don’t move based on who's in office alone. Hedge fund selling contributed to the rapid downturn, but circuit breakers were not triggered. New tariffs aim to U.S. employment and reduce reliance on China but will likely raise import prices and disrupt supply chains. Decoupling from China is a long-term goal, but current policy actions are more blunt than strategic. Trump’s unpredictable comments can swing markets dramatically, underscoring the need to focus on fundamentals over headlines. The COVID-19 pandemic acted as a catalyst for the market downturn, but the market was already overheated prior to 2020. The U.S. government may benefit from locking in lower rates on its debt, providing some relief if the economy slows Tariffs and market volatility may lead to long-term disruptions, affecting investments like 401(k)s, as negotiations continue. Gold is considered a secret bull market amid chaos, with institutional and government demand increasing. Bonds are not performing as strongly as in previous market downturns, indicating ongoing challenges in fixed-income markets. The crypto market has shown unexpected resilience despite a broader market selloff, which could be a slightly bullish indicator. China and the US are in a trade conflict, with the US trying to counter unfair tariffs, but this may lead to shifts in global supply chains to countries like Vietnam and India.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/big-move-in-the-sp-701 

Ladislas Maurice s us today to discuss the benefits of global investing. He shares his experience in emerging markets, and the investing benefits of getting a second citizenships. He shared insights on identifying macro opportunities in various countries, such as Uzbekistan's stock market and Egypt's real estate deals. He emphasized diversification to manage risk and shares the benefits of second citizenships, including access, security, and generational opportunities. Today we discuss...  Ladislas Maurice shared his background in law, business, and his expat career with Nestlé before transitioning into global investing. He has spent the last eight years traveling full-time, investing in emerging markets, real estate, and exploring residency and citizenship solutions. Ladislas' investment approach involves spotting macro opportunities and then determining how best to play them on the ground. The importance of diversification in emerging markets to mitigate risks and handle portfolio volatility. How international real estate can offer residency and even citizenship benefits in some countries. Panama as a popular residency option, especially for Americans looking to hedge political uncertainty. The cyclical nature of Americans seeking second residencies based on political shifts in the U.S. People should not make rash decisions but instead take a step-by-step approach to investing and relocating abroad. The benefits of second citizenships, including travel freedom, access to opportunities, and protection against geopolitical risks. Countries offering citizenship through investment, including Turkey, Egypt, and Caribbean nations. Birthright citizenship in places like Mexico, Canada, and Brazil can be a strategic option for families. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Phil Weiss | Apprise Wealth Management Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/global-investing-ladislas-maurice 

Is your social security safe from DOGE? Today we talk about the big changes coming to the Social Security istration and how (or if) they impact you!  We talk about social securities origins as a safety net, its current insolvency trajectory by the early-to-mid 2030s, and the political challenges of reform. We critique the past government inaction and explores potential solutions. Don't worry, your social security won’t disappear overnight so make rational decisions rather than reacting to media-driven fear. We discuss...  Market volatility and the significance of quarter-end movements. Tax-loss selling at year-end can lead to market bottoms in certain assets. Social Security was originally created as a safety net for those unable to themselves. A demographic imbalance is stressing Social Security’s financial stability. Without intervention, Social Security is projected to be insolvent by the early-to-mid 2030s. Potential solutions include extending eligibility ages and adjusting benefits. Some proposals suggest cutting istrative costs rather than benefits. Future reforms may involve income-based benefit reductions or delayed eligibility. The likelihood of Social Security disappearing entirely is extremely low. We advise against making rash Social Security decisions based on media fear-mongering. Social Security planning remains a critical topic, with past loopholes removed as the government adapts to prevent system exploitation. Previously, retirees could take Social Security early at 62, repay it later, and reset their benefits, but this strategy has been eliminated. The decision to take Social Security early or delay it depends on individual financial needs and life expectancy. Break-even analysis suggests waiting until full retirement age (67) can be beneficial for those with longer life expectancy. Raising the full retirement age to 70 could extend Social Security solvency by billions of dollars. Adjustments to cost-of-living calculations have historically been used to slow benefit inflation and extend program viability. The current Social Security payroll tax cap of $160,000 could be raised or removed to increase funding. Increasing payroll tax rates slightly could help stabilize the program’s finances. Social Security has one of the lowest istrative costs among government programs, with about 99% of funds going directly to benefits. Historical tax changes under Reagan and Clinton increased Social Security taxation thresholds, and further increases remain possible. Legislative changes to Social Security, including benefit reductions or age increases, can happen quickly with little warning. Market volatility continues to be a major concern, with seasonal patterns and large equity inflows despite broader uncertainty. Investors should be cautious of overpaying for stocks with declining growth while seeking undervalued opportunities.   Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast   For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/social-security-safe-from-doge-699 

Shelby McFaddin is here to discuss investment management for your portfolio in 2025's volatile stock market. Shelby discusses her time at Motley Fool Asset Management and shares her journey from studying economics and international affairs to working in private and public equity before transitioning to her current role. She shared insights on her investment strategy, highlights the challenges of stock picking in today's market, and emphasizes the importance of quality over chasing trends. She also talks the impact of macroeconomic factors, inflation, and interest rates on investing, and the housing market’s unexpected resilience.  We discuss... Shelby McFaddin shared her background in economics and international affairs, detailing her transition from institutional asset management to stock picking at Motley Fool Asset Management. She focuses on retail and consumer-exposed stocks, driven by her interest in human behavior and its impact on economic trends. Shelby follows a "growth at a reasonable price" (GARP) approach, balancing valuation considerations with growth potential. She highlights the difficulty of value investing in recent decades and how she evaluates opportunities by comparing industry peers rather than relying solely on historical valuations. Dividend-paying and shareholder-friendly companies play a role in her strategy, particularly those with strong cash flows and capital return policies. Inflation is expected to remain elevated and interest rates to stay higher for longer, shaping her investment outlook. The paradox of the housing market, where high interest rates have not lowered home prices but instead frozen supply and affordability. The Fed’s role in the economy may require more government intervention than people expect. AI is being integrated into business operations to streamline processes and increase efficiency. Investors are becoming more discerning about companies delivering on cloud and data center promises. The market punishes companies for missing expectations but not as severely as before. The concentration of stock market gains in a few companies raises concerns about broader growth. Lack of analyst coverage and institutional interest limits small-cap stock visibility. Investors are looking for companies that can efficiently allocate capital expenditures. The lack of movement in small-cap stocks is attributed to systemic rather than company-specific issues. Retail and institutional investors struggle to justify small-cap exposure due to risk and liquidity concerns. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Barbara Friedberg | Barbara Friedberg Personal Finance Douglas Heagren | Pro College Planners   Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast  For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/investment-management-shelby-mcfaddin-698   

There are some overvaluation in these stocks that may shock you! Today we discuss concerns over the stock market's high valuations, with a historical P/E ratio of around 17 now sitting at roughly 35, indicating extreme overvaluation comparable to the tech bubble. There is a risk of a potential 50% market correction and those who have only experienced rising markets, may be unprepared for downturns. We talk about the importance of hedging, reassessing portfolios, and understanding that economic conditions, stock markets, and politics do not always align. We discuss...  Current market valuations, with the P/E ratio at historically high levels near 35. A 50% stock market decline would bring valuations back to historical averages. Many investors are overly reliant on continued market growth. Differentiating between politics, the economy, and the stock market, and avoiding emotional investing. Institutional investors shifting into safer assets like short-term treasuries. Highlighted increasing institutional interest in private credit and alternative investments. Investors with capital are preparing opportunistically rather than out of fear, ensuring flexibility to take advantage of market shifts. The US market has dominated for two decades, but historical trends suggest international markets could rotate into favor. European markets have performed exceptionally well this year, with countries like , Spain, and the UK posting double-digit gains. US-centric investing is common, but diversification into international markets is crucial for risk management. The US market is currently underperforming, with the S&P 500 down approximately 8-10% year-to-date. Emerging markets, including India, Mexico, and parts of Africa, are experiencing significant GDP growth. Investors should be cautious with emerging markets due to political instability and economic volatility. A potential 30-40% market correction in the next two years raises concerns about finding safe investment havens. Bonds may not provide the usual refuge if yields and prices continue their current trends. Stagflation could create an unpredictable economic environment, similar to the confusion of the 1970s. The shift from US to international investing remains an ongoing trend, with Europe currently showing strong performance. People often fail to understand market dynamics, where news-driven price movements often lead to selling once the news is out. The U.S. government has declared Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a strategic reserve but says it won't sell them unless necessary. Markets are unpredictable, with current patterns possibly indicating a topping phase, signaling potential future downturns. The job market shows signs of weakening, with decreasing job openings and increasing layoffs, which could indicate economic challenges ahead. Today's ists: Kirk Chisholm | Innovative Wealth Douglas Heagren | ProCollege Planners Follow on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/moneytreepodcast Follow LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/showcase/money-tree-investing-podcast Follow on Twitter/X: https://x.com/MTIPodcast For more information, visit the show notes at https://moneytreepodcast.com/overvaluation-in-these-stocks-697